Latest NEWS Tuesday, January 17, 2012An Odd Couple Travels 1,500 Arctic Miles
By TIM MUTRIE
Erik Boomer and Jon Turk hardly knew each other before they set out in kayaks and circumnavigated Canada’s Ellesmere Island in 104 days, becoming the first to do so. Read full article:
National Geographic has nominated Erik Boomer and me as one of ten “Adventurers of the Year 2012” for our Ellesmere circumnavigation. The final Grand Slam winner will be voted in as a “People’s Choice” award. So, please vote for us by going to this National Geographic link.
Moolynaut passed away in early Dec, 2011. For those of you who read, The Raven's Gift, she was the Koryak healer who helped me mend my pelvis. She was born during the reign of Czar Nicholas II, in a near Stone Age existence, and is probably one of the last of the aboriginal Siberian shamans. We all morn her passing, but it was inevitable, just as the sun rises and the seasons change. Along with our sadness it is important to keep the ancient wisdoms alive in this internet crazed, oil soaked world.
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BlogEllesmere Island Expedition Blog
As customary, this blog and all my blogs read from the bottom (oldest date) to the top (most recent date.) So, if you want to read about the journey in chronological order, start at the bottom, first. To view a map of the expedition route, go to the main expedition page, and scroll down a ways.
Back Home Jon, here, writing the last post: Thirty-nine hours after successfully arriving in Grise Fiord, I awoke in the middle of the night with the fearful sensation that my metabolic systems had broken down. Friends drove me to the local medical clinic, where my condition was considered "life threatening." I was medi-vac'ed to Ottawa by Global Rescue, an amazing outfit that stepped up to the plate when my life was on the line. After 6 days in hospitals and medical clinics, I returned home to the real beginning, here in my home in the forest in Montana, which I share with my wonderful wife, Nina.
Eddie Bauer First Ascent-sponsored Team Completes First Circumnavigation of Ellesmere Island Erik Boomer and Jon Turk traveled 1485 statute miles in 104 days, skiing on rigid fast ice, jumping from flow to flow on moving pack ice and finally paddling through ice choked water. They would like to thank the following: Eddie Bauer First Ascent, Polartec, Wilderness Systems, AT Paddles, Kokatat Paddling Gear, WindPaddle Sails, 40 Below Overboots, NRS Watershed Dry Bags, and Iridium Communications. All the gear withstood the harshest polar conditions and made this expedition possible. August 19: They Made It Boomer and Jon made it to Grise Fiord at midday. Jon can hardly walk and Boomer's feet are swollen two sizes, but they were always in great spirits despite over 100 days of being wet, salty, and cold. Thanks to everyone who helped and everyone who followed this blog.
August 17: Tomorrow-Last Push? The wind was howling off the ice cap as Erik and Jon made their way around King Edward Pt. to (abandoned) Craig Harbour. A hunter’s cabin here shelters them as they dry off and warm up. Jon couldn’t talk long standing out in the wind in his underwear. Tomorrow should be their last push for Grise Fiord, which is over 35 miles away, across the open water and ice of a wide bay. They will have 10 knot winds against them. August 15: Counting Text: "Bad boy bear bites hole in tent while we sleep and 5 of his buddies watch" 81 miles from Grise Fiord, maybe 4 days.
August 14: Ice Ok, so it is my wishful thinking that the winds were favorable, but not so when mixed with ice. Text from the guys: "Bears scare us. We scare bears. Wind scares us. We do not scare wind." The wind should ease off by Tuesday the 16th. August 10 & 12: Winds for Home This is late because lightening took out my internet. On the 10th Jon and Erik were nearly equal longitude and latitude: N77º 47’, W77º 45’. Another landmark was their passing of Cape Herschel. Jon and his extraordinary wife and expedition partner at the time, Chris Seashore, had kayaked to here in June 1988 from Grise Fiord and crossed over to Greenland as told in the book “Cold Oceans”. Time and circumstance had brought many changes, including the astonishing retreat of the glaciers along this coast. If luck holds the wind forecast for today, the 13th, then it will be downwind for their final 6 days of this 103 day journey.
August 4: Eddie Bauer First Ascent-sponsored Team Making Miles N 79 40 W 72 07 Jon and Erik are finding that the ice is much more dispersed, and they have averaged 18 miles a day for the past four days.
In the 368 miles left to go are numerous crossings at the heads of deep bays, but they do not anticipate anything like the month it took to get down into Robeson Channel where all the arctic ice is compressed into the 15 mile wide funnel of Robeson and creates a display of incredible forces. Definitely the toughest days of the trip which they got through using patience, hard work, and decisiveness. July 27: Speed Limit Time is getting short, they need a month of 20 mile days. To use Andrew Garcia’s title of his wonderful book, this is a “Tough Trip Through Paradise.” July 25: Hikers While sitting on their kayaks on top of a 20 ft chunk of ice, Erik and Jon were totally surprised to see some hikers. They were Quttinirpaaq Park rangers out from Ft. Conger. A fortunate meeting because Jon and Erik had not been near shore much the last two days, and the (“Top of the World Park”) rangers were heading out on their patrol.
Strong NE winds blew huge ice into Robeson Channel last Friday, so they spent that day watching the powerful show. Yesterday they had excitement hopping and riding pans for eight miles. Today, Monday, it was calm enough to pan hop across St Patrick Bay and go along the ice foot on shore. They are now in Hall Basin, which gives more room for the Arctic ice funneling down through the narrow Robeson Channel. July has been arduously slow, but they feel confident in making to to Grise Fiord before the storms kick up the seas and bring snow squals in early September. July 22: Busting Out
Green arrow points to Lincoln Bay. Red arrow points to Cape Union above which they were stalled for three weeks. This shows that Robeson Channel catches the ice as it comes south between Ellesmere and Greenland. You can see how the ice further south has opened up. July 18: Tides N 82 15.7 W 61 07.3 Tides rule the ice near Cape Union. Erik Boomer and Jon Turk have taken footage as 6 foot thick sections of ice collide with land and explode into standing 30 foot walls. The watery world races south in flood tide and rips north in the ebb. Deeper bergs will ground themselves and create a channel of protection which allow them to paddle in blue water from 3 to a hundred feet wide. The shore is mostly cliffs, so during the flood tide they paddle or pull over avalanche debris and a rotten ice foot until reaching a safe shoreline above high water, then judge the time and distance to the next safe bivouac. Three days ago, it was mostly steep shale talus in which they had to unload the boats and ferry the loads in thirds. That was a 1.1 mile day. Yesterday was more of a mix of ice and water, so they made 2.5 miles. Today they were gifted with more paddling and they gained 3.5 southern miles. Then the tide began to turn with four miles of cliffs ahead. Tides and time do not wait, so they are.
July 14: Back on Land N 82 24.3 W 61 14 After sleeping for most the night while heading south on the little floe, the water opened up and then everything reversed direction and started to pack in tight. Jon and Erik ran around on their little mountain range to watch the spectacular show. Although they had drifted further from land (and further north) they made fast time back to shore. The ice is now packed very tight. They still have all their gear and food for a month, are feeling strong and fit, so tomorrow they will make their way south during high tide. July 13: Adrift On 5 Acres of Ice N 82 22.8 W 61 08.5
Three techniques and three hours to make 300 feet through the rubble, Erik and Jon have landed on a 5 acre multiyear ice floe. Paddling out was impossible, so they jumped from one tippy chunk to another with a rope to pull the boat, or they used the boats as a bridge or Boomer would jump and they would pull the two chunks together. The floe they are on is 6 feet above the sea level. Their camp is behind a pressure ridge on firm ice near a melt water pool. When they called, it was the beginning of the flood tide which was pushing them toward Black Cape at 4/10 of a knot. The full moon tides are strong, and although this floe is not huge, it is thick with the extra 15 feet of pressure ridge, so they feel solid for now. They used up the 3 hours of slack tide (in flood tide things are moving too much) getting this far out, so tomorrow they intend to hop out to bigger floes during slack and a part of ebb tide. Plans will be made depending on where the pan takes them. They're enjoying this. July 12: The Squeeze N 82 23 W 61 11 As Ellesmere explorer, photographer and author Jerry Kobalenko said “But the real test will come when they turn the corner after Alert and meet the pack ice that flushes down from the Arctic Ocean.” http://jerrykobalenko.com/ellesmere.htm
Jon and Erik have gone all of 2 miles in the last 6 days as they approach Robeson Channel, which forms a bottleneck for the southern flow of ice. The imperfect mix of rubble ice, varying from baseball to tent size, is too unstable to walk on (picture a martini with floating marbles), and too dense to paddle through. They are hoping for more of the forcasted larger flat pans of multiyear ice, of which there is now maybe one a day, but is out beyond the impenetrable rubble. Since the shoreline becomes a series of 3000’ cliffs for 55 miles with a rotten ice foot, the only other option is for a strong and sustained SW wind to move all the pack off the Ellesmere shoreline, but in the narrow Robeson Channel, there is less wiggle room for this. They would need open water to only be wide enough to paddle a kayak, but guaranteed not to close them into the cliffs. With the wonderful help of two Canadian ice scientists, Trudy Wohleben and Humfrey Melling, they are weighing these options. July 6: Not
July 5 : On the Move A flurry of texts: Jon and Erik - ice opening rapidly (then later) ICE CHANGING EVERY HOUR VERY EXCITING MAYBE PADDLING CLOSE TO SHORE TMORRW Trudy - Looks like the ice in Robeson is on the move "NE wind keeps ice tight & near Ellesmere, clears Greenland waters. Ice drifts SW. Contrary wind slows drift, opens pack. 2kt (knot) drift on floes near Elles good choice?" Dr Humgrey Melling Research Scientist - Fisheries and Oceans Canada Institute of Ocean Sciences
June 29: Slush and Crawl N82 52 W64 27 Skis no longer work in the present conditions. Since leaving Grise Fiord in early May, 822 miles ago, the surface was relatively smooth because drifted snow filled in the pressure ridges of the fast ice, leaving some larger peaks exposed like captured icebergs. Now the warm temperatures have melted the drifted snow into pools of slush and water, some ankle deep and others waist deep on top of ice. If a meltwater pool is deep enough, sitting in the cockpit and pushing along with the ski poles works, and if it is deeper still, we can paddle. When climbing a pressure ridge, sometimes the only way to get traction in the snow drift now gone to slush, is to crawl (and totally embrace the crawl to haul the kayaks) until firmer footing is felt, then stand and walk. Huge chunks of ice 20 to 30 feet high are crammed against the shore, making it impossible unless lakes and pools are formed wherever streams flowing with the melting snows from the land are damed. These are not true leads, but make for good traveling interrupted by ice that has avalanched or piled higher onto shore. They may only be inches deep and a paddles width, or 50 yards wide. Today there was 2 or 3 miles of dead flat with no ridges, a relief from the norm. With all these varying conditions, we averaged 10 miles a day this week. We are neither stressed nor surprised, this is break up and it is exciting to be in it. A big change may come tomorrow, because as we turn south in 5 or 6 miles, there are many large rivers draining a big ice cap onto low lying land. Hopefully this will create huge shoreline meltwater pools, but we may be wrong. 664 miles to go and we are loving the trip.
They are near the larger peninsula, Cape Joseph Henry to the NW of Alert. Image thanks to Trudy Wohleben and NASA satellite images. Eddie Bauer First Ascent-sponsored Team Reaches Halfway Point and Retrieves Critical Food Cache June 22: N83º 05' W72º 39'
Thanks to Kenn Borek Airlines, Aziz at South Camp Inn and the Catlin Group for the May delivery of this cache. We had no problem finding the food, so now the boats are loaded with 55 days worth. The heaviest they have ever been and we are still pulling.
Currently we are on the Ward Hunt Ice shelf, and today we had to get up and over countless parallel pressure ridges. We would wade through melt water pools of 5 - 30 yds wide, often thigh deep, then pull up through slush and mush to drier ice, with another 25 ft to top of the 30 ft ridge. The tops would be 30 - 40 yds wide, and then we sit in the kayaks and sled down 30 ft. into the melt water. Boomer would get going fast enough to scoot through much of the water at the bottom, but I am not as brave, and took it slower. We made 12 miles at this hard going. Boomer leads and I chug along as well as an old man can. We are a great team. Well bonded. We are camped in the rain on a glacier moraine at the end of the Ward Hunt Ice shelf, in need of sun to charge batteries. Back on to fast ice to the east of Disraeli Fiord tomorrow. June 15: Fast Ice N82º 40' W83º 08' Jon’s update: “In a few miles we are at the the farthest north point of Ellesmere. We are traveling, camping and living on sea ice. To the south is a range of mountain peaks ranging from 3,000, - 6,000 ft, heavily glaciated with many of the glaciers reaching to the sea. We are traveling on fast ice. Fast ice is stuck fast to land. which is one year ice that forms in September and October and will melt soon. There is snow on this ice from 1/2” to drifts of 6’ deep. With warmer temperatures this snow becomes more slushy by the day. As fast ice expands and contracts in winter, it pushes up into pressure ridges. Boomer writes, “Imagine a rough sea frozen in place.”
Five miles to our left, out into the Arctic Ocean, multi year ice crashes and melts, but never melts completely like fast ice. When fast ice forms in the fall there is potential for multi year ice to freeze into the matrix of the fast ice. Many people have told us this combination of slush, fast ice, pressure ridges and multi year polar ice can form a nearly impenetrable barrier. We hear stories of men having to take off their skis and manhandle one boat and then go back for the second, making less than a mile a day. This has not happened to us. Today there were all kinds of obstacles, but we never had to remove our skis or use both of us to maneuver one boat. With lots of flat ice in between, we made 13,3 nautical miles today. Our bodies are fine. Boomer broke a ski and is hobbling along on 1 1/2 skis, but is still very strong. Both of my skis are cracked. We don’t know what ice will come, but we are prepared for the worst and are in good spirits.” Eddie Bauer First Ascent-sponsored Team Reaches Critical NW Corner of Ellesmere June 10 N81º 55' W89º 49'
As the north wind blows over the immense Arctic Ocean, it forces broken ice into huge pressure ridges against the north coast of Ellesmere Island. This could slow Jon and Erik’s progress to less than 1/2 mile a day. In preparation for these expected conditions, they are carrying 50 days worth of food. There were a few ridges that they easily worked through, but the ice has yet to break up in earnest because it has been so cold. The ice is smooth and covered with snow. Great ski lines beckon from the 4000 ft peaks on Ellesmere. All this could suddenly change with warmer weather. They are on the coast near the top center of this June 10 satellite photo. (http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/2011161/)
June 6: In Sight
June 3: White Wolf Text from Jon: N 80.48, W 88.55 Camp 28. A white wolf visited camp for 12 hours. The gate keeper of the polar regions. All's good.
MAY 29: Eureka Weather Station Written by Jon: First leg of the journey. 338 nautical miles in 23 days, for an average of darn close to 15 nautical miles a day. On time , on schedule. Whew! Greeted in Eureka by a pack of wolves, good food, showers, flush toilets, our first food drop, friendly people, our first rest day in over three weeks, and all sort of good stuff. Vilhjallmur Stefansson famously said that adventures only happen when mistakes are made. If no mistakes, then it's pretty dull from the viewpoint of the outside world. Well, we've made mistakes. Using Boomer's kayaking metaphor, we've been gnarled a bit here and there, but we've always rolled back up. I screwed up when I originally glued my skins on, but at a hunters cabin back at Goose Point, I remounted them and glued and screwed them in place. Now I get lots of glide. Boomer has had footware trouble, so he built some crazy boots out of bits and pieces of boot-like material he found at some of the hunter's cabins. Those are far to the south of us now. No other civilians or civilian structures this far north. I dropped the tent and my paddle off my boat which was potentially expedition ending, but I walked back for an hour and retrieved everything. Dufus move, to be sure. Gnarled but not a swim. Temps are warming up a lot, snow is slushy. Melt water pools and walking through deep slush at times. We expected this; it is part of the transition from Polar Spring to Polar Summer. Coming up is the North coast, and all the uncertainties of the North Pole icepack. Emotionally, we are ready. Love to all who read this, Jon
Before ............... enduring
Erik Boomer.. before enduring 24 hr sun, wind and frostbite. MAY 25: Howling Headwinds They are making 15 miles a day despite strong headwinds. Tonight they are dug in (using their paddles) about 6 miles short of Cape May which is 60 miles, or 4 days travel to Eureka, where they will see the first people since Grise Fiord. Polar bear tracks are an everyday sight, but they have yet to see one since the mom and her cub early on. They've seen some polar bear kills where the seal is only 1/2 to 2/3rds eaten. If that means happy bears, then that means happy campers. A drink from a small pool of fresh meltwater on a river delta made for a welcome change and a sign of spring. They started out pulling 220 pounds, which is heavy for the arctic. Not bad, though, for being geared for kayaking, skiing, sailing, and photography. They are feeling strong and eating well.
MAY 18: North Wind
The north wind brought such cold, that they both had to wear everything they had including their life vests. They crossed two mountain passes on the portage around Hell Gate. It's been over a half marathon a day (13 nautical miles) in deep snow with lots of polar bear tracks. No bears. From a cabin, Boomer had to borrow some torn and worn pieces of old boots and boot like substances. He works on his footwear every night, but it is better than having a very sore achilles tendon. They are now about 7 miles south of Goose Pt, which puts them on their hoped for schedule. May 11: Hourglass Bay
The ice has been rough out in the bay, but smooth inside the fiords. Their plan is to go inland from Hell Gate as the ice gets thin before the open water of this polynya. A fall through into the 8 knot current could easily trap them under the ice. Again, this is local information from Grise Fiord, which Jon and Boomer have really appreciated. May 6: Grise Fiord N76 25.05 W82 53.6
Six good weather days with highs of -5ºC and lows of -17ºC are in the forecast. This with the fact that some locals sought Jon and Erik out to draw them a detailed map of just where and how far from shore they should travel to get through the jumbled ice gave them a good feeling for the first week of the 1291 nautical miles.
May 5: In Resolute Food drop went up to North of Island and should be in a safe place. Food drop went out to Eureka, but without our stove fuel. Darn. There should be another plane so that will be ok. Got 6, 12 guage slugs. Flight to Grise delayed due to weather. Met some ice shelf scientists on the plane. The north end of the island will definitely be a problem due to global warming break up issues. We have about 100 miles of ice on the map labelled with things like "jumbled ice" "rough ice" "cracks going perpendicular to line of travel." We have to figure an extra two weeks for that 100 miles.
May 2, 2011: Urban Bivy in Ottawa Boomer and I are in Ottawa, hanging out in an urban bivy because our flight north was cancelled due to 90 km/hr winds and blowing snow. Boomer speaks in his words:
In less than one week, my daily routine and environment will change dramitically. We will have one main goal for the next three to four months. Moving a kayak full of gear fifteen miles a day on average across the Arctic Ocean. Jon and I are both joking about this trip being a "vision quest". I am seeing this as an amazing opportunity to practicing breathing and mindfulness and enjoying ourselves in unfamiliar and uncomfortable surroundings. The past month I have been packing, modifying gear, saying goodbye to family and sending emails in preparation. I am thankful so far that this trip has helped me setting my priorities to see and visit all the amazing people I am lucky enough to have in my life. Jon, Tyler, and I have been working hard planning and figuring out how to pull this trip off for almost a year now. It's a bummer that Tyler will not be able to join us because of his injury. The truth is that this trip would probably not be happening if not for Tyler Bradt's hard work and great attitude. It is with that same attitude and determination that I want to bring to each grueling day of this expedition.
April 26, 2011: From Misha Those of you who have read my books are acquainted with my very dear friend and expedition aprtner, Misha Petrov. Misha just sent me a touching and loving email, which I would like to share with everyone. "Now it's very important for you to prepare for the trip. You must be very careful and not miss a single detail. In these difficult journeys are no trifles, and all must be considered and taken into account in great detail. You are now on anything else should not be distracted. You have a very great experience and God protects and loves you. I'm sure everything will be okay and I hope that you will have a good companion. It is very important and may be the most important thing in a difficult journey. Maybe it's good that the most difficult part of the way you will do only double. It's harder to load but psychologically it should be easier than three. I saw a photo of Erik Boomer, and I think it's a positive person is relatively young and strong enough. Therefore, all that may happen all the better. You will have a remarkable journey which will require a lot of strength and firmness. But all this will pay off those unforgettable memories that you will receive.
April 25, 2011: My Thoughts, from Jon's wife Nina My thoughts? Don't let the wind take your sleeping bag, the tide take your boat, or take closeups of bears! Bay of Woe, Cape Turn Back, Hell's Gate, and Lands End- hmmm. The months and miles of ice, weather, glaciers, walrus and open water will be grueling, gorgeous, sometimes hellacious, sometimes hilarious. You'll be in your element living so close to the rugged landscape traveling in small boats, so big love and cheers for you and Erik Boomer. April 25, 2011: Crunch Time A week from today, Boomer and I will connect up in Ottawa and fly north to Iqaluit. So it’s crunch time. The temperature in Grise Fiord today is -4 F. It’s supposed to be -22 F on Thurs, then start to warm up. I’m in Boston, working with Jody Weber, choreographer of Weber Dance to produce a joint Dance, Storytelling event surrounding images and ideas about seeking connectivity with ourselves, our communities, and our planet. Check out a video of our recent practice. I know that there is significant resistance out there in the world to saying this, but Boomer and I are on a vision quest. We can wrap it up in different bundles for our sponsors or magazines, or whatever, but if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck…….well… Right now, none of our food drops are in place. That’s right. Zero, zip, zilch. None. Aziz, THE MAN in Resolute assures me that the food drop in Eureka is guaranteed. Good, I trust that. After numerous attempts and “almosts” over several months, the food drop on the north end of the Island is “supposedly” happening May 10. What does "supposedly" mean? There are folks up there who need to be picked up. The pilots at Ken Borek Air know what's at stake. The food will be there. Yum, I can taste the candy bars now. Finally some locals in Grise Fiord assured us that they will drive up a food drop to Makinson Inlet when they go up there in late May by snow machine. So, I get nervous on occasion, but it's all good. The expedition unfolds. Tyler’s plans remain uncertain depending on his ability to raise enough money to join us in mid stream. Jerry Kobalenko, the prolific Ellesmere explorer and chronicler, emailed me the other day, asking, “What is your back-up plan in case you are moving too slowly and won’t make it around the island before the ocean starts to freeze again?” Duh….. I guess we don’t have a back-up plan……….Call a rescue, put it on our credit card, and declare bankruptcy? Nah, that’s not good style. Our back-up plan it to complete this expedition as planned……. April 13, 2011: Planning to Meet Tyler As I said on my Newsfeed, the revised plan is for Tyler to heal and then to meet up with us in mid June. If all goes according to plan, Boomer and I will have made it through Hells Gate and up the west coast of Ellesmere by that time. Tyler will then, hopefully, hitch a flight from Resolute to Ward Hunt, a small island on the north coast of Ellesmere. There’s a steel hut up there, where you can sleep without being eaten by a polar bear. Boomer and I will be battered, tired, and worked, crossing the in finite expanse of shifting, talking, moving ice. We will be so happy to see Tyler’s broad smile and hear his booming laugh. There are a lot of dragons to slay (or cajole) along the way. No one really knows how this will all pan out. March 25, 2011: Tyler On Monday morning, March 21, I opened my computer and saw an email from Tyler, posted at 1:47 AM, titled, "Bad News". The first three sentences read, "I really fucked up. My boat flattened out halfway down a big falls and I broke my back. I'll know a lot more in the morning when I talk to the neurosurgeon." That was 4 days ago. Tyler suffered an extension fracture of L-1. He's been through surgery and is screwed back together. We are all expecting 100 % recovery, but it will take a while. Boomer and I thought about postponing a year, but Tyler is planning another expedition, I am getting older, momentum will be lost with sponsors, and so on, and I fear that postponing would mean not doing it. So Boomer and I will set out as planned, saddened, without Tylers strength, infectious joy, and artistic camera eye.......... but with our own shared resolve and strength. March 12, 2011: Opening Strategy We've been working and planning for months, shipping food, arranging sponsors, conference calls and managing money, but today, it really felt that the expedition came into reality. I'm in Fernie. Tyler came up. We have been trying to make decisions about whether or not to use what we call "The Contraption", which is a sled-like device to (supposedly) increase the efficiency of pulling boats over ice and to decrease the wear on the boat bottom. It turns out, The contraption made everything much slower. The boat pulls very efficiently as is, with no complications or ramifications. As it turns out, the simpliest solution is the most efficient. Ditto with sails. We tried the very simple and totally low maintenance WindPaddle sails and it works just great. So we're going light and simple. We feel that we can easily walk 15 miles a day with this system. On my Facebook page, one of my frieds asked why we are leaving in May. My answer: The start strategy is complicated. We have three seasons, firm ice, slush ice, and open water. We're trying to hit different parts of the passage to optimize our total travel speed, connecting with with each different condition at the proper time and place. But that is impossible, so we are making guesses. Among people who know Ellesmere, about half say that we are leaving too late and half say that we are leaving too early, so we figure we're about right.
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